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East Asia Summit

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The East Asia Summit (EAS) is a pan-Asia forum to be held annually by the leaders of 16 countries in East Asia and the region, with ASEAN in a leadership position. Russia has applied for membership and as of 2005, attends on observer status. The first summit was held in Kuala Lumpur on December 14 2005 and subsequent meetings will be held after the annual ASEAN leaders’ meetings.

Contents

[edit] Countries involved

Image:East asia summit.PNG The 16 countries involved in the first EAS in December 2005 were:

Image:Flag of Russia (bordered).svg Russia participated in 2005 as an observer and has expressed desire and even requested to become a member. This is an issue for further discussion in the 2006 summit.

Image:Flag of East Timor.svg Timor-Leste is an applicant for membership of ASEAN.

Image:Flag of Pakistan.svg Pakistan and Image:Flag of Mongolia.svg Mongolia have been proposed as future members by Malaysia. [1] [2]

[edit] History prior to the first East Asia Summit

The concept of an East Asia Grouping has significant history going back to an idea first promoted in 1991 by then Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir bin Mohamad for an East Asia Economic Caucus. [3]

The final report in 2002 of the East Asian Study Group, established by the ASEAN+3 countries, was based on an EAS involving ASEAN Plus Three, therefore not involving Australia,New Zealand or India. [4] The EAS was to be an ASEAN lead development, with the summit to be linked to ASEAN summit meetings however the issue was to what extent beyond ASEAN was the EAS to extend to.

The decision to hold the EAS was reached during the 2004 ASEAN Plus Three summit and the initial 16 members determined at the ASEAN Plus Three Ministerial Meeting held in Laos at the end of July 2005. [5] [6]

Credit for advancing the forum during the 2004 ASEAN Plus Three summit has been attributed to both the People's Republic of China [7] and Malaysia[8].

[edit] Issues related to 2005 EAS (the first summit)

[edit] The presence of non-East Asian countries

While India is included in Asia it is normally identified as part of South Asia not East Asia. Australia and New Zealand are usually included in Oceania rather than Asia, although some differ and the distinction can be unclear.

The involvement of countries not seen as traditionally part of East Asia, especially Australia and New Zealand but to a lesser extent India as well, was seen as controversial by some. Former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir bin Mohamad, credited with raising the idea of an East Asian caucus, was especially critical of the involvement of Australia and New Zealand. [9]

Australia's presence was only confirmed after Australia reversed its previous policy and agreed to execute ASEAN's Treaty of Amity and Cooperation. [10] [11]

The presence of India was met by "quiet resistance" from China. [12] This stance may have reflected, in part, the perception that the presence of India would act to lessen Chinese influence in the EAS, as discussed further below.

Although not strictly East Asian all three countries did have a notable history with ASEAN. In 1974 Australia became ASEAN's first dialogue partner[13]. New Zealand became a dialgue partner in the following year, 1975 [14]. Summits with ASEAN for both countries were first held in 1977.

Australia and New Zealand as the two Closer Economic Relations (CER) countries have also developed close ties with ASEAN [15] and have been negotiating a CER-ASEAN free trade agreement since 2004 [16].

The linkages between ASEAN and India are more recent [17]. India did not become a full ASEAN dialogue partner until 1995. Nevertheless India's "look East" policy has placed particular emphasis on building relationships in the Asian region [18].

[edit] Koizumi's Visits to the Yasukuni Shrine

Japan-China and Japan-South Korea ties were strained ahead of the first Summit because of Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi controversial visits to the Yasukuni shrine, which honors 14 Class-A war criminals alongside Japan's other fallen soldiers. These visits are perceived by China and South Korea as symptomatic of a Japan that has not come to terms with its role in World War II, a conclusion disputed by Japan. [19] [20]

The most recent (at the time) visit by Prime Minister Koizumi was on 17 October 2005, so the issue was still fresh by the EAS in December. As a result the traditional Japan-China-South Korea meeting on the sidelines of the ASEAN Plus Three meeting (which preceded the EAS) was cancelled by China and South Korea. [21]

[edit] The rise of China and the need to check Chinese influence

The presence of the non-East Asian India, and to a lesser extent Australia and New Zealand, was seen by some as an attempt by some members of ASEAN (such as Singapore, Indonesia and the Philippines) to include countries who by their size or economies may act as a check to the rising influence of China, especially as the weakness in Sino-Japanese relations undermined the ability of Japan to perform that role. [22] [23]

China has attributed the presence of Australia and India to Japanese influence. [24]

[edit] The absence of the United States of America

The absence of the United States of America was seen by some commentators as symptomatic of what was said to be the USA's declining influence in Asia. [25]

Some view this as linked with what is perceived as Chinese influence rising. [26]

[edit] Outcome of the 2005 EAS

The difficulties in the relationship between the "Plus Three" members (ie Japan, China and South Korea) of ASEAN Plus three together with the positioning of parties due to the presence of the non-East Asian countries, India, Australia and New Zealand, resulted in limitations in what could be achieved at the inaugural EAS. The role of the inaugural EAS then became a confidence building and familiarisation exercise.

The Kuala Lumpur declaration and the Avian Influenza Prevention, Control and Response declaration were signed by the 16 leaders during the 2005 summit.

It was agreed to hold future EASs in conjunction with the annual ASEAN meetings.

The outcomes that were achieved are summarised in the Chairman’s Statement of the First East Asia Summit.

[edit] Issues related to 2006 EAS (the second summit)

The next EAS will be held on December 13 2006 in Metro Cebu, Philippines. After the confidence building of the inaugural EAS the 2006 EAS will help to define the future role of the EAS, its relationship with ASEAN Plus Three and the involvement of Russia in EAS.

The meeting of EAS foreign ministers in Kuala Lumpur on 26 July 2006 identified energy, finance, education, avian flu and national disaster mitigation as the priority issues for the 2006 EAS. [27] [28] The Philippines, the host of the 2006 EAS, has also said the failure of the Doha Round will be on the agenda. [29]

[edit] The role of other nations

Russia seeks to become a member of EAS.

The United States has now stated that it hopes to have some role in the future of the EAS. [30]

The European Union has indicated it wishes to have a role as an observer. [31]

However, ASEAN has decided to freeze new "membership" of EAS for at least two years. [32]

Separately Timor Leste is seeking to join ASEAN within five years [33], and if new members join ASEAN presumably they would also join the EAS.

[edit] EAS Free Trade Agreement

In April 2006 Japan announced a proposal for an East Asian Economic Partnership Agreement (also known as the Comprehensive Economic Partnership for East Asia (CEPEA) or the Nikai Initiative in reference to Toshihiro Nikai in reference to the then Japanese Economic Minister) consisting of the current members of the EAS. [34] [35] [36] [37] Japan, the promoter of the concept, described it as an "East Asia OECD". [38] Initially this was linked with a timetable for discussions to commence in 2008 and to conclude in 2010, which met with some scepticism. [39] [40]

By August 2006 this had been refined to a Japanese proposal[41] championed by Japanese Trade Minister Toshihiro Nikai consisting of:

  • a fund of US$80 million to $100 million to initiate a comprehensive economic partnership (CEP) with East Asia, modelled on the OECD [42] [43]; and
  • an institution to be named the East Asia Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) in an ASEAN country to research the benefits of a proposed Free Trade Agreement between the 16-members of the EAS; and
  • an East Asian Free Trade Agreement (EAFTA) between the EAS members.

Responses were mixed. Following the discussions of EAS Foreign Minister in Kuala Lumpur on 26 July 2006, to establish the agenda for the second EAS, it appeared that the proposal as it then stood did not have sufficient support to be included as an agenda item for the 2006 EAS. [44] Although the Philippines, which will be the host for the 2006 EAS, said trade would be on the agenda but in terms of the then present difficulties with the Doha Round. [45]

Nevertheless even after the meeting of the EAS Foreign Ministers Japan appeared keen to continue to discuss the idea in terms of a Free Trade Agreement between the members of the EAS. [46]

India came out publicly in support of a pan-Asia Free Trade Agreement. [47] New Zealand has expressed its support. [48] [49] As has Malaysia. [50] Australia has described the proposal as "interesting".[51] Indonesia has given guarded support to the proposal [52], linking it with the proposed East Asian Community and Asian Values. [53] ASEAN gave it's support to the Japanese proposal to research the proposed EAFTA. [54] [55] [56]

Ong Keng Yong, the secretary-general of ASEAN has suggested that "it can be done", referring to an EAFTA, and estimated it would take 10 years. [57] ASEAN as a whole seems to have a pessimistic view as to the feasibility of the idea at this time. [58]

Japan said it was delighted with the positive response to the proposal. [59]

Nevertheless China, South Korea and ASEAN were also said to have indirectly expressed scepticism about the idea. [60] The difficulties with the ASEAN - India FTA does not augur well for a larger FTA. [61] [62] Japan also had to defend itself from the allegation that the proposal was advanced as a mechanism to counter China. [63]

The position of China was expected by some commentators [64] although not all agreed. [65] China appears to prefer the narrower grouping of ASEAN plus Three for a future Free Trade Agreement. [66] New Zealand has expressed confidence that China will support the proposal, especially if the research shows a benefit to East Asia from an EAFTA. [67] [68]

The United States of America has proposed a FTA within the members of APEC which may be in response to the suggestion of an FTA between the members of the EAS. [69] Japan has suggested that the EAFTA could be used as a building block for the larger APEC FTA. [70] The US is aggressively coming out against such a move concerned about a line down the middle of the Pacific while Asian economies are concerned about the US's ability to deliver a broad based FTA. [71]

In September 2006 Toshihiro Nikai was replaced as Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry (Japan) by Akira Amari. The impact of this change on the Nikai initiative is not presently known.

[edit] Growth in India and China ties and the Japanese thaw

In November 2006 India and China announced plans to double bilateral trade by 2010. [72]. The growing relationship between the world's two most populous nations was seen as a potential source of stabilitty and co-operation for the region.[73] The two countries joint declaration of 21 November 2006 agreed at paragraph 43 to "cooperate closely" in the context of the EAS. [74]

Further the change in leadership in Japan with Shinzo Abe's election to the Prime Ministership of Japan in September 2006 brought about some thawing in Japan's relationship with both China and South Korea. [75]

These changes suggested the potential for different dynamics in the second EAS to the tensions in the first.

[edit] Fuel stockpiles

It is proposed that an agreement to standardise rules for bio-fuels and agreements on stockpiling fuels will form part of the 2006 EAS. [76] [77]

[edit] East Asian Community

The East Asian Economic Partnership Agreement seems linked with the ideas of community building in East Asia. The scope of the EAS and Community building may be further clarified by the 2006 EAS. It may be that the concept of community building means very different things to different parties.

Prior to the creation of the EAS it appeared that ASEAN Plus Three would take the role that may now fall to the EAS of community building in East Asia.[78] [79] [80]

The community building role for the EAS not ASEAN Plus Three is an outcome India, not a member of ASEAN Plus Three, supports. [81] The feasibility of this has been questioned with Ong Keng Yong, the secretary-general of ASEAN being quoted as describing the EAS as little more than a "brainstorming forum". [82]

Nevertheless the Chairman’s Press Statement for the Seventh ASEAN Plus Three Foreign Ministers’ Meeting Kuala Lumpur, 26 July 2006 said

"25. The Ministers welcomed the convening of the East Asia Summit as a forum for dialogue on broad strategic, political and economic issues of common interest with the aim of promoting peace, stability and economic prosperity in East Asia. In this respect, they recognized that the East Asia Summit could make a significant contribution to the achievement of the long-term goal of establishing an East Asian community."

The Chinese news site Xinhua Net suggested this would arise through a two-phase process with ASEAN Plus Three as the first phase and the EAS as the second phase. [83] The China-India joint declaration of 21 November 2006 linked, at paragraph 43, the EAS with the East Asian Community process. [84]

Nevertheless some link the EAS with a future broader Asian Economic Community like the European Community. [85] However some commentators see this an overly optimistic vision. [86]

On any view community building is not a short term project. For the moment currency union, as distinct from the Asian Currency Unit, is not even being purused within ASEAN, much less the broader members of the EAS. [87] [88]

The cultural, religious, language and racial groupings in the EAS are diverse. There is also great disparity in the size and level of development in the economies and in the populations of the nations involved. Plainly the level of support within the EAS for such an ambitious role for the EAS is mixed. The outcomes of EAS 2006 may provide some indication for the role and shape of EAS in East Asian community building.

[edit] The relationship with ASEAN Plus Three

The relationship between the EAS on the one hand and ASEAN Plus Three on the other is still not clear. As discussed above, some countries are more supportive of the narrower ASEAN Plus Three grouping whereas others support the broader, more inclusive EAS. ASEAN Plus Three, which has been meeting since December 1997 [89] has a history, including the Chiang Mai initiative [90] which appears to have led to the development of the Asian Currency Unit. This may be significant for those advocating a broader role for EAS in the future.

The tension between the groupings extends to the respective members' intentions towards future Free Trade Agreements with China and South Korea focused on ASEAN Plus Three and Japan on the broader EAS members. [91] [92]

The 1997 Asian financial crisis had demonstrated the need for regional groupings and initiatives. It was during this time ASEAN Plus Three had commenced and it was also during this time that the East Asian caucus was being discussed.

The EAS is just one regional grouping and some members down play its significance, the Australian Prime Minister John Howard has stated that the EAS was secondary as as regional summit to Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) which has on his view a premier role [93]. Not all members of EAS are members of APEC. However as the EAS meetings are scheduled with the ASEAN Plus Three meetings (they both follow the annual ASEAN meetings) and all members of ASEAN Plus Three are members of EAS the ability of the two forums to remain relevant given the existence of the other remains in question. China has stated its preference for both EAS and ASEAN Plus Three to exist side-by-side. [94]

The relationship between APEC, ASEAN Plus Three and the EAS remained unresolved heading into the 2007 APEC meeting. [95] Following the meeting Malaysian Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi described ASEAN Plus Three as the primary vehicle and implied APEC was the lesser of the three. [96] At the same time a Malaysian commentator writing in a Singaporean newspaper described concentric circles for the three with ASEAN Plus Three at the centre and APEC at the outer, also suggested the Nikai Initiative, with its regional OECD like plans, might overtaking the remianing role for APEC. [97]

[edit] Future

The EAS is seen as a precursor of a pan-Asia summit and promises to be “open, inclusive, transparent, and forward-looking.” Together, the members represent half of the world’s population and a fifth of global trade in 2005. This is sometimes linked into a European Community-like concept of an East Asian Community as discussed above. [98] It seems it is too early to reach any conclusions of where the EAS will lead. [99]

[edit] See also

[edit] External links

ja:東アジアサミット zh:东亚峰会

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