French presidential election, 2007

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The 2007 French presidential election will be the ninth such election of the Fifth French Republic. It is assumed that the first round of voting will take place on Sunday, April 22, 2007, with a second round (if necessary, which usually is the case) on Sunday, May 6, 2007.

1 Confirmed candidacies
2 Confirmed non-candidacies
3 Possible candidacies
4 Issues facing France in the 2007 presidential election
5 Politicians who may pursue a candidacy for the 2007 presidential election

[edit] Confirmed candidacies

Ségolène Royal was selected by the French Socialist Party on November 17 to be the party's candidate for the election. She is the first woman to represent a major French party in a Presidential contest.
The Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) is having an internal primary election in January 2007 to select its candidate. UMP president and Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy is the leading contender and has officially declared his candidacy. Defence Minister Michèle Alliot-Marie is also rumoured to be considering a run. Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin has declared that he will make a decision on whether to run in the first quarter of 2007. Jacques Chirac is considered an unlikely candidate given his dismal approval ratings. He has yet, though, to rule himself out.

[edit] Confirmed non-candidacies

Christine Boutin announced that she would not be a candidate for the election and pledged her support for Sarkozy (source: France 2 news, 2nd December 2006).

[edit] Possible candidacies

It has been rumoured that President Jacques Chirac considered running for a third term. However, such a hypothesis seems increasingly remote, due to a series of political and personal setbacks to Chirac: an unpopular administration; the defeat of the proposed European Constitution, strongly supported by Chirac, in a referendum; a health incident in 2005; and, finally, the higher popularity of other right-wing candidates.

[edit] Left

The defeat of the proposed European Constitution unleashed the latent tensions and rivalries within the French Socialist Party. On November 16, 2006, the members of the Socialist Party chose Ségolène Royal to contest the election, over Dominique Strauss-Kahn and Laurent Fabius. Broadly speaking, Fabius, who earlier campaigned against the European constitution because it was too much in favour of free markets, ran on a platform of strict adherence to the platform of the Socialist party and against economic liberalism. Strauss-Kahn ran on a platform of synthesis of liberalism and socialism. Royal ran in opposition to politics as usual, often shocking observers by unusual proposals such as sending delinquent youth to camps ran under military supervision. [1] Royal received 60.6% of the vote, Strauss-Kahn 20.8%, and Fabius 18.6%.[2]

This election was somewhat of a novelty, especially since the Socialist party introduced a procedure for signing up to join the Party through the Internet at the reduced membership fee of 20€, which some commentators claim attracted people more interested in Ségolène Royal's personality than in the party per se.[3]

[edit] Center

The centrist Union for French Democracy (UDF), a longtime ally of the UMP, has now embarked on a course of more marked independence, though there still are considerable debates within that party about that policy. President of UDF François Bayrou will most probably run in 2007 on a platform rejecting the de facto two-party system, as well as what he perceives as lack of democracy and partisan politics in France.

[edit] Others

There exists a number of political parties to the left of the Socialist Party, most notably the French Communist Party (PCF), the Revolutionary Communist League (LCR), and Workers' Struggle (LO). Each has a probable candidate, respectively Marie-George Buffet, Olivier Besancenot and Arlette Laguiller; in addition, José Bové is considering running on a altermondialist platform. As of June 2006, there are discussions about a possible common candidacy among some of these, but no agreement has so far been reached.

Jean-Marie Le Pen will most probably run for the National Front, a far-right party which promotes policies of strong law enforcement and strong measures to control immigration.

Any candidate will need to obtain at least 500 endorsements by elected officials to be put on the ballot.

[edit] Issues facing France in the 2007 presidential election

The election raises a number of issues:

The Far Right -- The National Front, long dismissed as a fringe party, created surprise when its leader, Jean-Marie Le Pen, reached the second round of the 2002 elections. Le Pen's points of focus — law and order and immigration — are now openly taken up by politicians such as Nicolas Sarkozy. It is also possible that the National Front will want a younger candidate (in 2007 Le Pen will be 79 years old, the same age which De Gaulle was when he stepped down from the presidency in 1969). Nevertheless Le Pen's chances cannot be ruled out. His approval rating in opinion polls markedly increased after the riots of late 2005.

Disarray of left-wing parties -- During the 2002 presidential elections, a number of left-wing candidates ran for office, which, according to commentators, was one reason for the defeat of Socialist candidate Lionel Jospin. Since then, the Left has been split between a "mainstream" left, represented by the French Socialist Party, which accepts the market economy, and some parties and groups further to the left that question or reject the market economy.

Jobs and unemployment -- France has long had an unemployment rate close to 10%. Employment, and employment conditions, are a perennial concern for the French.

High-level political scandals and disrepute -- A number of scandals have tainted various French politicians, including president Jacques Chirac, with some, such as former prime minister Alain Juppé, being convicted. The recent Clearstream affair was exposed as a sordid case of forgery and denunciations involving major politicians from the ruling UMP coalition.

European disunity -- This French presidential election follows the EU Constitution rejection vote in 2005, which has thrown into question the future direction of the European Union.

Law and order -- During the 2002 campaign, law and order came to the forefront, especially with respect to unruly youth from poor suburbs. In the Fall of 2005, in some of these suburbs significant unrest erupted. Again, law and order will be a forefront issues, with mainstream candidates tackling the problem of reining in unruly youngsters. Already, right-wing candidate Nicolas Sarkozy has proposed measures to change criminal procedure for youngsters, while left-wing candidate Ségolène Royal has proposed to send unruly youths to centers under military discipline.

Feminism -- France's first woman president may be elected in 2007 — Ségolène Royal, a Socialist, is running and on November 16th, 2006, she has been selected as the candidate for the French Socialist Party.

[edit] Politicians who may pursue a candidacy for the 2007 presidential election

Note: the classification of parties in far left/left/right/far right reflects the usual classification by the French media and may disagree with the opinions of some. It is not yet known who among these politicians will still intend to run later on, nor is it known which of these will fit the legal requirements, especially the 500 endorsements by elected officials.

[edit] National Right / Far Right

[edit] Right

[edit] Center

Union for French Democracy
- François Bayrou

[edit] Left

[edit] Far Left

[edit] Others

[edit] Opinion Polling


	TNS Sofres [4]	LH2 Louis Harris [5]	BVA [6]	CSA [7]	IFOP [8]	IPSOS [9]
Avril 2006	Royal 51% - Sarkozy 49% (18/04)	-	-	Royal 53% - Sarkozy 47% (18 et 19)	Sarkozy 51% - Royal 49% (20 et 21)	Royal 51% - Sarkozy 49% (7 et 8)
Mai 2006	-	-	-	Royal 53% - Sarkozy 47% (16 et 17)	-	Royal 51% - Sarkozy 49% (12 et 13)
Juin 2006	-	-	-	Royal 51% - Sarkozy 49% (7)	Royal 51% - Sarkozy 49% (29 et 30)	Sarkozy 51% - Royal 49% (9 et 10)
Juill. 2006	-	-	-	-	-	Sarkozy 51% - Royal 49% (7 et 8)
Août 2006	-	-	-	-	-	Sarkozy 51% - Royal 49% (18 et 19)
Sept. 2006	-	-	-	Royal 52% - Sarkozy 48% (27/09)	-	Sarkozy 52% - Royal 48% (8 et 9)
Oct. 2006	Royal 51% - Sarkozy 49% (16/10)				Sarkozy 53% - Royal 47% (17/10)	Royal 50% - Sarkozy 50% (12/10)
Nov. 2006				Royal 53% - Sarkozy 47% (24/11)	Royal 51% - Sarkozy 49% (17-18/11)
Déc. 2006					Royal 50% - Sarkozy 50% (01/12)
Voters were asked to choose their choice for president for the second round.