Labour Party (UK) leadership election, 2007
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The 2007 Labour Party leadership election campaign is already underway, but the actual vacancy has been predicted by many in parliament and the media to occur before May 31 2007 <ref>Will Blair and Brown get their way? BBC News 6 September 2006</ref> - this being the last feasible date for the campaign to start so that a new leader could be in place before the summer recess - upon the resignation of Tony Blair. The suggestion of this date was first reported by The Sun newspaper on 6 September 2006, and was also reported by the BBC later that day. If the election is called on May 31 2007 the winner will most likely become leader and Prime Minister of the United Kingdom on 26 July 2007, however the election may come earlier than this if Tony Blair is forced from office by the signing of a letter by 71 Labour MPs asking for his removal, or if he decides to resign earlier. It is generally being assumed by many that Tony Blair will resign as Prime Minister on the same day as the election of a new party leader, but it is possible that he may decide that there should be a short interlude as part of a transition towards a new Prime Minister. It will be the first Labour leadership election since 21 July 1994 when Tony Blair was elected. Gordon Brown, Chancellor of the Exchequer, is considered to be the most likely successor to Tony Blair and although there is likely to be at least one backbench challenger obtaining the neccessary signatures, a frontbench challenger looks unlikely as increasingly cabinet colleagues describe him as being Blair's natural successor with an increasing number openly backing him <ref>http://www.politics.co.uk/news/party-politics/labour/brown-blairs-natural-successor-$456589.htm Brown Blair's Natural Successor] 2 November 2006</ref>.
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[edit] Candidates
[edit] Declared candidates
The following candidates have declared their intention to stand:
[edit] Possible candidates
The following candidates have been named by several media outlets as possible candidates, and some have publicly declared a possible interest in the past.
- Jack Straw <ref>Will Blair and Brown get their way? BBC News 6 September 2006</ref>
- John Hutton <ref>Will Blair and Brown get their way? BBC News 6 September 2006</ref>
- Michael Meacher <ref>Johnson backing Brown for Leader BBC News 9 November 2006</ref>
- Alan Milburn <ref>Possible Labour leadership contenders BBC News 30 August 2006</ref>
- John Reid <ref>Reid's end-of-rally job pitch BBC News 28 September 2006</ref>
[edit] Declined
- Tony Blair
- Alan Johnson <ref>Johnson backing Brown for leader BBC News 9 November 2006</ref>
- John Prescott<ref>Mr Prescott is expected to resign as deputy leader of the party when Mr Blair quits as leader. Surprise frontrunner in race for deputy leader, The Age, Australia - 8 Aug 2006</ref>
- David Miliband <ref>On Mr Brown, he said: "What I believe is that we need a smooth transition to Gordon Brown, we need an energising, refreshing transition to Gordon Brown." Miliband call over transition The Guardian 7 September 2006</ref>
[edit] Position of Tony Blair
Tony Blair is still seen as refusing to endorse Gordon Brown as his successor. Commentators speculate that this reflects hopes in Downing Street that, given sufficient time, other candidates for Prime Minister will emerge so as to force a full leadership contest.<ref>"Blair fails to back Brown", David Cracknell and Isabel Oakeshott, The Sunday Times, September 17, 2006.</ref>
[edit] Bookmakers
Leading bookmakers are all placing Gordon Brown as favourite, and all place John Reid as second favourite. <ref>William Hill - Bookmakers' odds</ref> <ref> [1] Paddy Power - Bookmakers' odds </ref>
[edit] The rules of the contest
Each prospective candidate needs the support of 44 Labour MPs before they can put themselves forward.<ref>Anyone wanting to run for leader requires the support of at least 12.5 percent of Labour's 353 members of parliament to qualify, or 44 MPs. FACTBOX-How Britain's Labour Party elects a leader, Reuters, 7 September 2006</ref> The winner will be decided by a ballot of trade union members affiliated to the Labour Party, ordinary Labour Party members, and the Parliamentary Labour Party, the results of each of which will be weighted to make up a third of the total vote.<ref>An electoral college will cast the ballot, with one-third of votes going to Labour MPs and members of the European parliament, another third to any member of the Labour Party and a final third to members of affiliated organizations such as trade unions. FACTBOX-How Britain's Labour Party elects a leader, Reuters, 7 September 2006</ref> Any candidate with a majority at that stage will become leader. <ref>Labour leadership rules explained BBC News 30 August 2006</ref>
[edit] Results
[edit] Timeline of events
- 1 October 2004 - Tony Blair said he would not seek fourth term as Prime Minister.
- 15 July 2006- John McDonnell became the first Labour MP to announce that he would stand for leadership.
- 5 September 2006 - 17 Labour MPs sign a letter asking Blair to resign. Press reports indicate up to 80 MPs are willing to sign such a letter.
- 5 September 2006 - Senior party members said that Tony Blair would not be Prime Minister at the next Labour Party conference. <ref>PM gone within year, allies say 6 September 2006</ref>
- 6 September 2006 - The Sun reports Blair will resign on May 31 2007, with his replacement to take office by the end of July 2007.
- 6 September 2006 - Tom Watson resigns as Junior Defence Minister. Watson was one of the 17 MP's who signed the letter calling for Tony Blair to resign. <ref>In full: MPs' call for Blair to go BBC News 6 September 2006</ref>
- 6 September 2006 - Seven Parliamentary Private Secretaries (not members of the Government, as frequently wrongly stated) also resign in protest.
- They are: Khalid Mahmood, Wayne David, Ian Lucas, Mark Tami, Chris Mole, David Wright <ref>In full: Resignation letters BBC News 6 September 2006</ref> and Iain Wright <ref> 21:45 – Iain Wright quits </ref>
- 7 September, 2006 - Jack Straw says he expects the Prime Minister will resign in May next year, and that he is likely to set out a timetable for his departure today. <ref>[2]</ref>
- 7 September, 2006 - Tony Blair says the September 2007 Labour Party Conference will be his last i.e. he will leave within a year.
- 12 September, 2006 - Tony Blair is heckled at the Trades Union Congress by members who call for him to resign immediately. <ref>Blair's 'brutal truth' to unions BBC News 12 September, 2006</ref>
- 15 September, 2006 - Geoff Hoon becomes the first ex-cabinet minister to say the prime minister should resign before the May 2007 elections. <ref>[3]</ref>
- 23 September, 2006 - John Hutton becomes the first current Cabinet Minister to say Gordon Brown should face a serious challenger for Labour's leadership.<ref>[4]</ref>
- 25 September, 2006 - Brown addresses Labour party conference.<ref>Brown sets out leadership vision BBC News 25 September 2006</ref>
- 26 September, 2006 - Blair addresses Labour conference for the last time.<ref>It's hard to let go, admits Blair BBC News 26 September 2006</ref>
- 28 September, 2006 - John Prescott announces that he will stand down when Tony Blair stands down as Prime Minister <ref>[5]</ref>
- 9 October, 2006 - Parliament resumes from the Summer recess.
- 11 October, 2006 - First Prime Minister's Questions of the new parliamentary session where David Cameron directly asked Tony Blair if he "backed the chancellor as his successor", to which Blair did not answer.<ref>Cameron challenges Blair on Brown BBC News 11 October 2006</ref>
- 15 November, 2006 - During the debate on The Queen's Speech, Tony Blair taunts David Cameron with the comparison of the Conservative leader being a "flyweight" against a heavyweight at the next United Kingdom general election, which is widely understood to be implicit support for Gordon Brown <ref>[http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200607/cmhansrd/cm061115/debtext/61115-0005.htm</ref>
- 19 November, 2006 - John Reid refuses to rule himself in or out until Tony Blair actually stands down <ref>Reid not ruling out leadership bid - The Guardian</ref>
[edit] Future Milestones
- March 2007 - Gordon Brown. or his successor as Chancellor of the Exchequer, delivers the 2007 budget.
- 2 May, 2007 - Blair's 10th anniversary as Prime Minister if he remains in office.
- 3 May, 2007 - UK local elections, 2007, Scottish Parliament election, 2007, Welsh Assembly election, 2007
- 31 May, 2007 - Anticipated resignation of Blair, and the last possible date he could resign to ensure a new Prime Minister would be in place before the Summer Recess of Parliament.
- 26 July, 2007 - The latest date a new Prime Minister could be in place if the contest is called on the 31st, should the leadership contest be called on or before 31st May. The last day of Tony Blair as Prime Minister.
- 27 July, 2007 - The new Prime Minister appears before Parliament, provided the contest starts on the 31st May.
- 27 November, 2008 - If Blair stays to this date - extremely unlikely given his commitment on 7 September 2006 - he would have served for Prime Minister for longer than Margaret Thatcher.
- 11 June, 2009 - European elections, also a likely date for the General Election and possibly for the Local Elections that year to be moved to, maximising the Labour turnout. In 1997, 2001 and 2005 the General Election and Local Elections were held on the same day with Local Elections moved to June in 2001 to be on the same day as the General Election.
- 3 June, 2010 - The last possible date for a General Election, though it is speculated that one will be called much sooner than this. This is the deadline for the new Labour leader to go to the polls for the first time.
[edit] Deputy Leadership
John Prescott has said that he intends to stand down when Tony Blair stands down as Prime Minister<ref>[6]</ref>, although John Prescott has said a number of times that he intends to oversee Labour's leadership election, many in the Labour Party want to avoid the extra cost and hassle of having the two elections on different days <ref>[7]</ref>. There will be a separate election for the deputy leadership.<ref>Mr Prescott is expected to resign as deputy leader of the party when Mr Blair quits as leader. Surprise frontrunner in race for deputy leader, The Age, Australia - 8 Aug 2006</ref>
[edit] See also
[edit] References
<references/>
[edit] External links
- Labour website
- Blair succession BBC News Special Report
- John McDonnell's Campaign Homepage
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