Scottish Parliament election, 2007
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The Scottish Parliament election, 2007, will be the third general election<ref>Scotland Act 1998 - Part I - Section 2 - General elections. www.opsi.gov.uk.</ref> to the devolved Scottish Parliament since it was created in 1999. Polling will take place on Thursday May 3 unless two-thirds of MSPs vote to dissolve Parliament before then.
The Scottish Executive, with Jack McConnell as First Minister, will go into the election commanding a small majority consisting of a Labour and Liberal Democrat coalition. The coalition has been in power, with three different First Ministers, since the first Scottish Parliament election in 1999. Opinion polls suggest its majority could be lost in 2007, due to falling support for the Labour Party and rising support for other parties. No single party is likely to acquire an overall majority. Nor is there an obvious alternative coalition ready to form a new Executive.
The Scottish National Party (SNP), currently second place behind Labour in terms of numbers of Members of the Scottish Parliament (MSPs), seems best placed to gain from shifting voting patterns should Labour lose seats, and, based on current projections based on recent opinion polls, there could be some possibility of an SNP-Liberal Democrat coalition, which may extend to include the Scottish Green Party.<ref>
- Somewhere over the Rainbow Coalition ... Scotsman 12 May 2005
- Panic within Labour as membership falls Scotsman 5 March 2006
- Lib Dems open door to coalition with SNP Scotsman 7 March 2006
- Is this the end of Lab-Lib Dem pact? Scotsman 24 March 2006</ref>
Other parties now represented in the Parliament include the Conservative Party, the Scottish Socialist Party and Solidarity.
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[edit] Election system
The election will be the first using constituencies (see Scottish Parliament constituencies and regions) which are not identical to constituencies of the House of Commons (Parliament of the United Kingdom). Scottish Westminster constituencies were replaced with a new set of generally larger constituencies, fewer in number, in 2005.
The Arbuthnott Commission reported in January 2006, concerning the multiplicity of voting systems and electoral divisions in Scotland, but there will be no change to the Holyrood election system, except as regards use of vote-counting machines, before the 2007 election.
Scanners supplied by DRS Data Services Limited of Milton Keynes, in partnership with Electoral Reform Services, the trading arm of the Electoral Reform Society, will be used to electronically count the paper ballots in both the Scottish Parliament general election and the Scottish council elections, which take place on the same day.<ref>"Electronic counting to take over from tellers at elections", The Scotsman, 19 April, 2006</ref><ref>"Green light for DRS & ERS to deliver e-Count for 2007 Scottish Elections", press release, DRS Data Services Limited</ref>
[edit] Party leaders
[edit] Major parties
| 2007 Scottish Parliament Election - Party Leaders | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | Scottish National Party | Conservative and Unionists | Liberal Democrats | ||||
| Jack McConnell First Minister of Scotland and Leader of the Scottish Labour Party | Alex Salmond Leader of the Scottish National Party | Annabel Goldie Leader of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party | Nicol Stephen Deputy First Minister of Scotland and Leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats | ||||
| Age | 46 | Age | 51 | Age | 55 | Age | 46 |
| Parliament | 7 years | Parliament | Scottish Parliament - 2 years (1999-2001) & UK Parliament - 19 years (1987-present) | Parliament | 7 years | Parliament | Scottish Parliament - 7 years & UK Parliament - 5 months (1991-1992) |
| Leader since | 2001 | Leader since | 1990-2000 & 2004 | Leader since | 2005 | Leader since | 2005 |
| Profession | Teacher | Profession | Economist | Profession | Solicitor | Profession | Solicitor |
Of the major party leaders in the Scottish Parliament - only one, Jack McConnell, of the Scottish Labour Party fought the 2003 Scottish Parliamentary election as leader. Nicol Stephen succeeded Jim Wallace as Deputy First Minister and Leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats in June 2005, after the latter announced that he would not be contesting the 2007 election.<ref>Lib Dems choose Stephen as leader. BBC News. BBC (23 June 2005). Retrieved on 2006-10-11.</ref> Alex Salmond was elected leader of the Scottish National Party in 2004, with his deputy Nicola Sturgeon.<ref>Salmond is SNP leader again with Sturgeon as No 2. Edinburgh Evening News. Scotsman (3 September 2004). Retrieved on 2006-10-11.</ref> Salmond previously led the SNP between 1990 and 2000, but stood down and was replaced by his preferred successor John Swinney, who headed the party between 2000 and 2004. After Swinney's resignation in 2004, Salmond announced that he would, once again contest the leadership and won the ballot of members in June 2004. Annabel Goldie was elected leader of the Scottish Conservatives in November 2005<ref>Tories have their 'coronation' as Goldie becomes leader unopposed. Scotsman (3 November 2005). Retrieved on 2006-10-11.</ref> after the resignation of the incumbent David McLetchie on October 31, 2005 after a row surrounding taxi expenses.<ref>McLetchie finally quits over taxi row. The Scotsman. Scotsman (1 November 2005). Retrieved on 2006-10-11.</ref>
[edit] Opinion polls
The first figure for each party is for the 1st, first-past-the-post, constituency, vote; the second figure is for the 2nd, proportional representation, regional, vote. The Scottish Green Party and Scottish Socialist Party have both said that they will not run candidates in constituencies in the 2007 election, so constituency values in polls for those parties have little meaning.
| Poll | Dates | Lab | SNP | Con | LD | Grn | SSP | other | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 2nd | 1st | 2nd | 1st | 2nd | 1st | 2nd | 1st | 2nd | 1st | 2nd | 1st | 2nd | ||
| Scotsman/ICM | 27 Nov 2006 | 29% | 26% | 34% | 31% | 13% | 12% | 17% | 19% | - | - | 3% | 4% | - | - |
| Scotsman/ICM | 1 Nov 2006 | 30% | 28% | 32% | 28% | 14% | 14% | 15% | 17% | 3% | 6% | 4% | 4% | - | - |
| Sunday Mail/Progressive Partnership | 18-20 Oct 2006 | 32% | 25% | 35% | 28% | 11% | 11% | 16% | 26% | - | 4% | 2% | 5% | - | - |
| Sunday Times/YouGov | 5-7 Sept 2006 | 30% | 27% | 29% | 29% | 14% | 14% | 18% | 15% | - | - | - | - | 10% | 15% |
| Herald/System 3 | 24-29 Aug 2006 | 36% | 28% | 28% | 27% | 12% | 11% | 17% | 19% | 3% | 8% | 4% | 6% | - | - |
| SNP/Scottish Opinion | 27 Aug 2006 | 29% | - | 33% | - | 10% | - | 19% | - | 5% | - | 2% | - | - | - |
| Herald/System 3 | 27 Jul - 1 Aug 2006 | 37% | 29% | 29% | 32% | 13% | 10% | 14% | 15% | 2% | 8% | 3% | 4% | - | - |
| Herald/System 3 | 29 Jun - 4 Jul 2006 | 37% | 29% | 31% | 33% | 11% | 9% | 14% | 17% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 5% | - | - |
| Ipsos MORI | 1 Jul 2006 | 28% | 26% | 30% | 28% | 15% | 16% | 19% | 19% | 4% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 4% |
| Result election 2003 | 1 May 2003 | 34.89% | 29.30% | 23.77% | 20.86% | 16.53% | 15.50% | 15.13% | 11.78% | - | 6.68% | 6.22% | 6.90% | 3.46% | 8.97% |
The Scotman stated that the findings of their poll would produce a seat distribution as follows: Labour 41 MSPs (-9), SNP 37 MSPs (+10), Liberal Democrats 25 MSPs (+8), Conservative and Unionists 17 MSPs (-1), Scottish Greens 5 MSPs (-2), others 4 MSPs (-6).
The Sunday Times stated that the findings of their poll would produce a seat distribution as follows: Labour 42 MSPs (-8), SNP 38 MSPs (+11), Liberal Democrats 19 MSPs (+2), Conservative and Unionists 17 MSPs (-1), Scottish Greens 9 MSPs (+2), others 4 MSPs (-6).
[edit] Constitutional issue
On 1 November 2006 The Scotsman published an opinion poll <ref>"Vital gains forecast for SNP in swing from Labour", The Scotsman, 1 November, 2006</ref> conducted by ICM. The survey found that 51% were in favour of Scottish independence, with 37% against.
On 10 September 2006 The Sunday Times Scotland published an opinion poll <ref>"Labour turmoil as Scots back independence", The Sunday Times - Scotland, 10 September, 2006</ref> conducted by YouGov. 1176 respondents were interviewed between 5-7 September 2006 <ref>YouGov / Sunday Times (Scotland) Survey Results, YouGov plc</ref>. The survey found that 44% were in favour when asked "If there were a referendum tomorrow on whether Scotland should become an independent country, separate from the rest of the United Kingdom, how would you be inclined to vote?" 42% were against, and 15% didn't know. 64% were in favour of giving the Scottish Parliament more powers, with 19% disagreeing.
[edit] MSPs expected to be retiring at the next general election
[edit] Labour
- Susan Deacon, Edinburgh East and Musselburgh [1]
- John Home Robertson, East Lothian [2]
- Janis Hughes, Glasgow Rutherglen [3]
- Kate Maclean, Dundee West [4]
- Maureen MacMillan, Highlands and Islands list [5]
[edit] Scottish National Party
[edit] Conservative and Unionists
- Phil Gallie, South of Scotland list [8]
- James Douglas-Hamilton, Lothians list [9]
- David McLetchie, Edinburgh Pentlands [10] (uncertain)
[edit] Liberal Democrats
[edit] Independents
- Brian Monteith, Mid Scotland and Fife list [13]
- Jean Turner, Strathkelvin and Bearsden [14] (uncertain)
[edit] References
<references />
[edit] See also
[edit] External link
| Preceded by: 2003 election | Scottish Parliament election 2007 election | Succeeded by: 2011 election |
